Two datasets published five days apart describe this market from opposite ends. Xeneta reports that weekly scheduled capacity crossing the Bab el-Mandeb strait in at least one direction rose from about 224,000 TEU on 27 August to 448,000 TEU on 5 October, a near doubling in six weeks. Clarksons Research puts container capacity through the Suez Canal at about 753,000 TEU per week in the first half of October, roughly 52 percent of the 1.457 million TEU weekly average of 2023, with 36 percent of the capacity that could use either the canal or the Cape now taking the canal, against 8 percent earlier in 2026. In the same week the Drewry World Container Index rose 3 percent to USD 4,485 per 40ft, and a new general rate round of USD 4,200 to 4,700 per 40ft takes effect today, 19 October. More capacity and higher prices are not a contradiction. They are what a capacity managed market looks like in the weeks before contract season, and the practical question for anyone shipping out of China is which of the two moves first on their lane.
Sea-Intelligence estimates that normalisation could release around 2.1 million TEU of vessel capacity, and that if all head-haul services return to Suez by the end of 2026, head-haul container demand could contract 8.7 percent year on year in the first half of 2027 despite underlying growth of 6.6 percent. About 19 percent of Asia-Europe capacity has already moved back. CMA CGM now describes the waterway as a permanent and sustainable route, its 24,212 TEU newbuild CMA CGM Pantheon has completed a maiden canal transit, and CMA CGM together with MSC have returned the joint North Europe to Australasia service to Suez in both directions, which lets them cut the fleet from 18 ships to 16. The Premier Alliance restores its FE1 Asia to North Europe service to the Red Sea route this week, its first return since the diversion began.
Carriers are offsetting the release with blank sailings. Xeneta counted 58,200 TEU withdrawn from the Far East to US West Coast trade and 35,500 TEU from the Far East to US East Coast in a single week, roughly 13 percent of October sailings have been pulled, and the cargo movement update compiled by SAAFF and BUSA records 34 blank sailings expected across the major East-West trades. Suez hands capacity back with one hand and blankings take it away with the other, which is exactly why the index has not collapsed.
| Benchmark | Reading | Change | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Drewry WCI composite, 15 Oct | USD 4,485 per 40ft | +3 percent | Drewry |
| Shanghai to Rotterdam | USD 3,522 per 40ft | +6 percent | Drewry |
| Shanghai to Genoa | USD 3,945 per 40ft | +7 percent | Drewry |
| Shanghai to Los Angeles | USD 7,884 per 40ft | +3 percent | Drewry |
| Shanghai to New York | USD 10,075 per 40ft | -1 percent | Drewry |
| Bab el-Mandeb weekly capacity | 448,000 TEU | from 224,000 in August | Xeneta |
| Suez weekly container capacity | 753,000 TEU | 52 percent of 2023 | Clarksons |
| Capacity routed via Suez | 36 percent | from 8 percent | Clarksons |
The announced levels are Hapag-Lloyd at USD 4,200 per 40ft to North Europe and USD 4,600 to the Mediterranean, CMA CGM at USD 4,600 and USD 4,700, and MSC at USD 4,500 to both regions, all effective today. Drewry is explicit that implementation is uncertain given the extra capacity from fewer blank sailings and resumed canal transits, and expects rates to hold rather than climb next week.
The spread is the signal. A USD 500 gap between the cheapest and the dearest carrier on one trade is a pricing position, not a clearing price, and it tells shippers the round is negotiable. Two second-order effects matter on secondary lanes. Capacity defended on North Europe is capacity withheld from feeders, so space usually tightens there before it tightens on the headline trade. And adjacent increases are already landing: CMA CGM added USD 1,000 per container on Asia to South America from 15 October, a move that explicitly covers Bangladesh origins, while Maersk lifts its US inland fuel surcharge from USD 140 to USD 215 per container on 1 November.
| Lane or port | Operating signal | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| China to Chittagong | Congested rating on 19 Oct, 25 of 31 vessels over 48 hours, median stay 70 hours | Berth is workable, release is not |
| China to Ashdod | 2 days average vessel waiting | Space available |
| China to Haifa | 24 vessels in seven days, none over 48 hours, 17 hours median | Cleanest port on the network |
| China to Durban | 11 at anchorage, 251 hours waiting, 30,352 move backlog | Add 10 to 16 days |
| Salalah transhipment | 2.6 days, highest in the region | Buffer every Gulf relay |
| South China origin | Shanghai 2.61, Shekou 1.29, Yantian 1.65 days | Shekou yard density above 90 percent |
| Singapore transhipment | 3 to 5 days berth wait, over 4 days average delay | Allow a week of slack |
The port is not the constraint this week. Chittagong is rated congested in port data on 19 October, with 25 of 31 container vessels that called in the previous seven days staying more than 48 hours and a median time in port near 70 hours, but the queue itself is short. Release is the constraint. In the first week of September the National Board of Revenue suspended the bond facility for imports of 10 to 30 count cotton yarn, the coarse count used in knitwear, and customs began demanding bank guarantees even on letters of credit opened before the order took effect. A commerce ministry circular on 13 September withdrew the guarantee requirement, yet consignments are still held pending further instruction, and BGMEA together with BKMEA wrote to the Prime Minister on 15 October asking for release of yarn shipped under earlier letters of credit.
Coarse cotton yarn is a China origin flow, so the lesson is concrete. Confirm HS classification and bond eligibility before the box is booked rather than after it arrives, and carry a guarantee cost line in the quote so a rule change does not turn into a surprise invoice. A container that arrives on time and cannot be released is more expensive than one that arrives late.
Ashdod averages 2 days of vessel waiting and Haifa is clear, with 24 container vessels in seven days, none staying beyond 48 hours and a median stay of about 17 hours. The ocean leg from South China runs roughly five weeks. Space into Israel is available; what moves the landed cost is the war risk premium, which can be reimposed at short notice, and schedule integrity rather than berth availability. The return of services to Suez is the single largest positive for this trade, because it removes the Cape detour from the Asia to Eastern Mediterranean leg. In the Gulf, Salalah records the highest regional wait at 2.6 days with yard congestion affecting berthing, so Oman transhipment needs a buffer.
Durban Gateway Terminal lifted waterside throughput 6 percent to an average of 4,734 TEU per day, and two-week total moves improved by about 15 percent. The backlog has not cleared. As of 15 October, 11 vessels remained at anchorage with delays of about 251 hours at anchorage and 127 hours at berth, while 30,352 container moves, equivalent to about 11.3 days of quayside work, were still waiting and roughly 10,000 containers were being redirected through Pier 1 and the Point terminal. The total port queue, including bulk and breakbulk, reached 36 vessels. September throughput was 460,166 TEU, up 20 percent month on month but down 5 percent year on year.
The rest of the region is worse. Seven day average waits are around 13.33 days at Conakry, 9.33 at Beira, 5.59 at Tema, 3.77 at Pointe Noire where yard occupancy sits near 95 percent and window and first-come berthing have been suspended, 4.0 at Cotonou and 2.33 at Coega. Quote Africa on a berth to door basis, and budget storage and detention as separate lines rather than burying them inside the freight rate.
Spider Logistics moves cargo from South China to Chittagong, Ashdod, Haifa, Durban, Mombasa, Jebel Ali and the wider Middle East and Africa region by sea and air, with customs clearance and door to door delivery handled in house. If you want a lane level quote that separates freight from terminal, fuel and destination costs, our team can build it for you.